by Rab Bruce’s Spider

The thing about secret Intelligence reports is that they are secret. This means that we can’t possibly know the basis on which Theresa May has announced that the Terror Threat has been raised to Critical. All we will see is the impact of the announcement. There are, though, some questions we should at least consider before either applauding or decrying the presence of troops on our streets.

First of all, we must acknowledge that any criticism of the Government’s response is likely to be received with accusations of mocking the memory of the innocents who were killed or injured in the Manchester bombing. That, however, is not the intention here. The bombing was a callous and cowardly act, no matter who carried it out or for what purpose, and the tragic loss of life is appalling to contemplate. But one of the things we keep hearing from our politicians and journalists is that we must not let the terrorists defeat us, and that we should carry on our lives as normal. Except that having troops on the streets isn’t the normality we have grown up with, so we should at least take a little time to consider what the consequences of the bombing might be.

It is, of course, impossible to know whether the presence of troops will deter a copycat terror attack. The sight of armed soldiers might well convince some impressionable idiots that it is not worth the effort. On the other hand, if someone is so full of fervour that they are willing to kill themselves in a suicide mission, might not the sight of British troops persuade some nutcase that this represents an ideal opportunity to take revenge on some representatives of the State which has been bombing Middle eastern countries for years? We can’t know what goes on in the minds of suicide bombers, but we should not dismiss the possibility that the presence of troops might actually encourage more attacks.

There is also the question of why the terror threat was raised at all. Presumably there are reasons to believe that an attack is imminent. If so, can we expect arrests soon? Will the threat level be lowered once the identified threat has been nullified? Or, as some people are suggesting, has the threat level been raised solely to make the Government look tough? Why was it not raised before the Manchester bombing instead of after it? How long will the Critical threat level be maintained? Again, it is not possible to know the answers to these questions, but let’s hope the raising of the threat level isn’t a knee-jerk response.

The other thing we must keep in mind is the immense difficulty of preventing terror attacks. Our Intelligence Services face a difficult task, but it is even more difficult for the Police – and now the Army – to prevent an attack. Even if we ignore the issue of whether the sight of armed troops might provoke another attack, how do they actually prevent a lone suicide bomber from killing him or herself and others? Will every sporting venue be ringed by soldiers? What about every concert venue? What about pubs and nightclubs? What about High Street shops or shopping malls? Will we see troops deployed in every location at all times? It’s doubtful that Britain has nearly enough soldiers to do that. This renders the whole thing questionable in terms of effectiveness. There is no doubt many members of the public will take reassurance from the sight of soldiers who are there to defend them, but can those soldiers really do what they are ostensibly there for? If some lone bomber is determined to carry out a suicide attack, there really isn’t an awful lot anyone can do to stop him or her.

So should we simply shrug our shoulders and carry on as normal? As far as possible, we probably should. We obviously need to remain vigilant, and we need to ensure that the Police are informed if we happen to stumble across some knowledge of a potential threat, but, ultimately, we must rely on our Intelligence Services whose job it is to track down potential terror threats. What we must avoid is becoming accustomed to the sight of armed soldiers patrolling our streets, because that would mean that the terrorists have won.