by Rab Bruce’s Spider

Predictions are dangerous things, and can come back to haunt you. However, while everyone is getting excited about polling data as the General Election draws near, there is one possible scenario which doesn’t appear to have been mentioned. So, while this is not a prediction as such, it’s a suggestion as to one hypothetical outcome of the vote.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the Tories lose their overall majority, and Labour could claim the right to form a Government if backed by the SNP. This situation has been suggested as possible, even if it’s not the most likely outcome.

So what would happen? Here’s a thought. Would Jeremy Corbyn take up the position as Prime Minister if it required the backing of the SNP? Kezia Dugdale says he would do no deals, but it doesn’t require a deal to have support from another Party. Corbyn can hardly tell the SNP not to support him.

The big problem is that, for a distressingly large proportion of the English electorate, the SNP are regarded as little better than barbarians. Forget all the love-bombing Scotland received in 2014, the reality is that Corbyn might find he would lose a lot of support if he relied on the SNP.

So here’s the radical idea. Is it possible that Corbyn would refuse to form a Government and allow the Tories to run a minority Government simply to prevent the SNP having any influence?

That might not be as daft as it first sounds. You only need to look at Labour’s recent voting record in the House of Commons to realise that, for all their socialist rhetoric, they don’t actually stand up to the Tories on very many issues at all. Abstaining or even voting in support of Tory legislation is more their style. The recent examples of Labour Councillors backing Tories in Local Councils are further instances of Labour cosying up to the Conservatives rather than cooperate with the SNP.

Let’s face it, on the two big constitutional issues facing the UK - Brexit and Scottish Independence - Corbyn is fully behind May’s approach. He could save himself a lot of flak if he ducked out of forming a Government which required SNP support. And, as mentioned in earlier posts, he needs a majority of English MPs anyway, since EVEL would preclude him passing any legislation which only affected England, so why bother forming a Government which would not be able to satisfy the majority of the UK electorate?

So EVEL gives Corbyn a handy Get Out of Jail Free card if he wants to reject SNP support, and we have seen in recent weeks that Labour would infinitely prefer a Tory Government than allow the SNP any influence.

This is not a prediction; but it’s something to bear in mind. The Tories are still likely to have a majority, because too many voters in England love the Tories but, if we do end up with a hung Parliament, it will be interesting to see whether Corbyn will step up to the mark, or whether he’ll cave in to the anti-Scottish sentiment which is so prevalent at Westminster.