By Rab Bruce’s Spider

Few of us would claim to be experts on the Middle East but with David Cameron’s thirst for war in Syria, we really ought to try to understand what is going on out there. So here’s my attempt at unravelling the situation and explaining my understanding of it as simply as I can.

It all started with the Arab Spring, when various countries experienced revolutions which overthrew their incumbent dictators. Syria was no exception but President Assad reacted strongly and used military force against the rebels in his country.

Assad is an ally of Russia and so, by default, the USA wants rid of him. Accordingly, they funded and equipped some of the rebels

and began raising support for a bombing campaign against him. However, because Assad was backed by Russia, nobody was too keen to get involved quite so blatantly, so the USA resorted to making threats about bombing Assad if he used chemical weapons. There were a few attempts to prove that he had done so but the evidence was questionable at best. Fortunately for the USA, their desire to bomb somebody was given a boost by the actions of the group variously known as Islamic State, IS, ISIS, ISL or Daesh.

Daesh came to prominence after the US / UK invasion of Iraq when senior members of Iraq’s former military ruling class were ousted and looking for a way to oppose the western powers. Daesh quickly gathered followers and seized control of a large area of land in Iraq and Syria, also gaining control of several oilfields.

Daesh’s main enemies are actually other Muslims. Being extremely fundamental Sunni Muslims, they have carried out many attacks on their Shia opponents, killing thousands in the process. They have also been responsible for, or claimed credit for, terrorist attacks in other countries, including several in France. In addition, Daesh made a habit of capturing nationals of other countries and publicly beheading them. For these reasons, America quickly gained allies in their call for revenge bombing, with around a dozen countries, including Canada, France and Saudi Arabia, joining in, with the UK operating in areas outside Syria.

With me so far? We have Assad fighting rebels who are supported by the West and Daesh attacking everyone around them, with the West bombing Daesh while also providing funds and munitions for anti-Assad rebels.

If only it were that simple. Turkey, a country which has a habit of attempting to destabilise most of its neighbours, is ostensibly aiding the USA but it is also threatened by the Kurds who want to establish an independent Kurdistan. There are several Kurdish groups who, when not fighting one another, are actively engaged in fighting Daesh but also fight Turkey, carrying out some terrorist attacks there, according to Turkish media. For this reason, Turkey supports the anti-Assad rebels because they fight Assad and the Kurds but they also tacitly encourage Daesh because they are fighting the Kurds and because the Turks are governed by Sunni Muslims who have some sympathies for Daesh even though they are officially attempting to destroy them.

Enter the Russians. Things weren’t going too well for Assad, so he asked them to help him. They joined in, claiming they were fighting Daesh but actually bombing assad’s enemies who, although some of them are linked to Al Qaeda and therefore technically America’s enemies, are being supported by the USA. When America protested about the Russians bombing the wrong terrorists, the Russians then agreed to spend some time bombing Daesh and allegedly destroyed a convoy of oil transporters which were carrying oil Daesh hoped to sell to raise funds.

This annoyed Turkey because they have secretly been purchasing the oil from Daesh and didn’t like the Russians blowing up their cheap supplies. In retaliation, they shot down a Russian plane. Now, it must be said that the Russians have a long tradition of probing other countries’ airspace and the Turks were given an excuse for this action although they do appear to have been very willing to start world War Three with their trigger-happy response to an alleged seventeen-second incursion into Turkish airspace. There is still confusion over exactly what happened and whether any warnings were given to the Russian aeroplane but it is revealing that at least one of the crew was captured by Syrian rebels when he bailed out. He might have drifted, of course, or perhaps the Syrians had inadvertently invaded Turkey. We’ll probably never know the truth of the affair.

If you thought it was getting complicated, it grows worse. Daesh not only sell their oil to Turkey, they sell it to Assad, who is one of their enemies. This allows him to continue fighting the US-backed rebels who are also now being bombed by Russia.

As you can see, it’s a complete shambles out there and is further complicated by another source of funding and equipment which Daesh enjoy. Because they are fundamental Sunnis, they are backed and funded by Saudi Arabia which itself is governed by and promotes its own extremist form of Islam known as Wahhabism. For religious reasons, they covertly back Daesh because Daesh oppose Iran, the Saudi’s main concern in the region. But the Saudis are, of course, America’s closest ally in the Middle East and are also actively supported by the UK even though these two countries oppose the Saudis proxies, Daesh and even though the Saudi Air Force has been involved in bombing missions against Daesh because, ostensibly at least, they are cooperating with their US allies.

Honestly, you’d struggle to make this up, wouldn’t you?

This is the mess David Cameron wants the UK to become involved in by dropping yet more bombs, in defiance of the fact that the thousands of bombs already dropped have only served to make the problem worse. There is no clear strategy for peace in the area which must necessarily include the Kurds and Assad, if for no other reason that the former are the largest and most powerful ethnic group in the area and the latter is an ally of Russia who will not want to see him toppled. Eliminating Daesh will be virtually impossible without employing ground troops in large numbers anyway and even then, as our experiences in Afghanistan has amply demonstrated, there is no guarantee of imposing any sort of lasting peace, even if the major powers were to devise some sort of sensible strategy which, so far, they have totally failed to do.

There is obviously no simple answer to this crisis but dropping more bombs certainly isn’t going to help. Cutting off Daesh’s funding would be a start but that would require a significant change of stance by America, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, so it’s not likely to happen any time soon. Establishing an independent Kurdistan might also help ease tensions but Turkey is never going to agree to that so another route to peace has been effectively cut off.

So, in summary, America supports Al Qaeda rebels against Assad and opposes Daesh who are fighting Assad but supports Turkey and Saudi who covertly aid Daesh while cooperating with Russia in some bombing of Daesh but opposing them when they bomb Al Qaeda. This, of course, does not prevent the USA bombing Al Qaeda in Pakistan and Afghanistan but that’s a different war. The Kurds, meanwhile, are fighting Daesh and Turkey, so the west supports them in some of their fighting but not in others. We do support Iraq which is also fighting Daesh and is a long-standing foe of Iran which supports Russia who, of course, are on our side when they bomb Daesh but not when they bomb Al Qaeda. Turkey remains a western ally so officially fights Daesh but actually supports them and opposes the Kurds while supplying Al Qaeda. Russia backs Assad so opposes Al Qaeda but also opposes Daesh and is now on poor terms with Turkey who, as a NATO member, is unfriendly to Russia but as a trading partner, relies on Russia for supplies of oil and gas. Saudi Arabia are western allies but support Daesh financially because Daesh oppose Iran and Assad, but the Saudis are also involved in bombing Daesh in order to keep in with America. As an aside, the Saudis also continue to wage war against Al Qaeda in Yemen where both the Saudis and Al Qaeda are fighting the houthis and a Daesh offshoot who are also fighting each other. Not wanting to be left out completely, the UK provides intelligence and military advice to Saudi Arabia in this little-reported war.

I hope that has cleared it up for you. If you can see a solution, please contact the UN.

Finally, in all this, we must not forget the refugees. It is no wonder people are fleeing Syria in vast numbers. Perhaps the UK could spend its money better by helping more of them rather than by dropping bombs on their country. Again, that’s not likely to happen because Cameron isn’t really fussy who he bombs, as his U-turn on his target from assad to Daesh clearly shows; he just wants to look tough to keep his right wing voters happy. Whatever else you can say about the man, anyone who adopts that sort of 19th Century gunboat diplomacy really shouldn’t be permitted to run a sweetie shop, let alone a country.