Surprise, Surprise!
Posted on May 23rd, 2024
by Rab Bruce’s Spider
Mastodon: @RabBrucesSpider1@Mastodon.Scot
X / Twitter: @RabBrucesSpider
Rishi Sunak surprised everyone yesterday, including himself. He announced the General Election while standing outside in the pouring rain, apparently not having read the weather forecast. But his announcement also dismayed many Tory MPs who were caught unawares, and it has also created issues for the Tory Party as a whole because they do not yet have candidates nominated for every constituency. It’s almost as if this hapless and hopeless PM hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing. The most charitable view I can put on this is that he has realised he has no chance of winning and has decided to cut and run for California because he has little chance of extracting more personal wealth out of the UK economy.
For Scots, of course, the election presents several issues, not least of which is that, in true Westminster style, Mr Sunak completely ignored the fact that his date of 4th July lands it in the first week of the school summer holidays in Scotland, so many voters will be away, not to mention that the schools will be closed, so using them as polling stations presents some logistical challenges if staff are away on their holidays. As usual, though, problems for Scotland were completely overlooked because England = UK, so who cares what the Scots think? If that’s not yet another reason to support independence, I don’t know how many more examples people need.
When it comes to voting, we face more issues. This will be the first election in Scotland where voter ID will be required. How many people is this going to disenfranchise? I’d like to think that most voters are aware of the requirements by now and will ensure they have suitable ID, but experience suggests that many will be turned away when they arrive to vote with no ID. As has been demonstrated several times, this new arrangement is a deliberate attempt to prevent young and poor people from voting. Let’s hope it also catches out many elderly Tory voters.
But who are we to vote for? I still struggle to comprehend why anyone who believes that Scotland should become a normal, self-governing country can consider voting for Labour. The ballot papers may call them Scottish Labour but we’ve seen time and time again that it is London Labour who call the shots. Labour are a fanatical Unionist Party, and voting for them will not help Scotland’s case at all.
I wrote in an earlier post that I thought that demonstrating competent government was a sound foundation for building support for independence, but John Swinney will not have time to do anything of the sort, so this present another problem for voters. What is he going to use as his central election policy? The early comments coming from senior SNP politicians are not encouraging, with independence barely being mentioned. That is a dreadful mistake, as was demonstrated in 2017 when voters did not provide the support the SNP needed because of a perceived lack of focus on independence. To repeat that mistake would be folly. The SNP need to put in a good performance in this election even if they do not intend to follow Humza Yousaf’s idea of using it as a de facto referendum. That’s because the English media in Scotland will pronounce independence dead if the SNP perform poorly. The gloating will be insufferable but a worse consequence will be that the Westminster Government will see such a failure as the perfect excuse to exercise yet more control over Scotland. Devolution and the status of the Scottish Parliament are very much at risk whichever Party gets into power in Westminster.
There are, of course, many Scots who do not believe that the SNP actually wants independence, but the problem for them is that voting for Alba or ISP or the greens will only dilute the Yes vote because the English media in Scotland see only the SNP as a meaningful measure of support for independence. That’s grossly unfair as well as being wholly inaccurate, but the smaller Parties really have not made any dent in opinion polls and I fear that voting for them will only dilute the Yes vote. I’ll reserve final judgement until I see what the campaigns look like, but I strongly suspect that some Yessers might be forced to hold their noses as they vote SNP. That’s unfair on other pro-indy Parties, but the iniquitous First Past The Post voting system so ingrained in UK thinking means that tactical voting is essential in many constituencies, and the SNP are the best-placed pro-indy Party in most constituencies.
As for those Yessers who genuinely believe that the SNP will not deliver independence, I would say that this General Election is a last chance to let the Party disprove it. If we elect a majority of SNP MPs and they still do nothing, I’d say their chances of winning the next Holyrood election will be seriously diminished. Westminster elections are a farce as far as true democracy is concerned because the system is designed to maintain the status quo, with both leading Parties following pretty much the same policy paths. Holyrood is where we can really demonstrate our desire to become a normal country, and if John Swinney cannot demonstrate the ability to push us further down the road to independence after this UK election, then all bets are off when it comes to the next Holyrood election. That is where the smaller Parties can really step up.
But that’s all in the future. What we need now is some dynamic and bold moves from the SNP. Sadly, past experience suggests we may well be disappointed again. I sincerely hope not, but bold and dynamic are not words which leap to mind when thinking about John Swinney. Please let him prove me wrong.