by Rab Bruce’s Spider

Nicola Sturgeon recently made some excellent points about her strategy of pursuing a Section 30 Order for IndyRef2. She pointed out that the 2014 referendum was carried out under what she termed a "Gold Standard" in terms of observing the constitutional and electoral rules, and she felt that we should not settle for any less for IndyRef2. Then, when challenged on how she would respond if the Section 30 Order is denied, she very neatly turned the question around and said that people should instead be demanding to know why those who say they will block IndyRef2 are adopting that highly undemocratic stance.

As usual, she made the points calmly and clearly, and it must be said she was very astute in shifting the focus towards the dictatorial attitudes of the Westminster voices who seem intent on denying Scots a democratic choice.

The intention seems to be to follow the accepted steps towards IndyRef2 in order to be able to assert to the people of Scotland and the international community that the Scottish Government has done everything by the book and been thwarted at every turn. Quite what happens after that is anyone’s guess. Perhaps, once all proper channels have been exhausted, Ms Sturgeon may feel she will be able to proclaim that unorthodox steps must be taken because every other avenue has been blocked. Perhaps she has received assurances from the international community that they will recognise Scotland as an independent nation if she carries out an advisory referendum once every other option has been refused by Westminster. That seems unlikely, but you never know. She may even have some other clever plan in mind but, for obvious reasons, does not want to let her opponents know what it is.

There are, however, a couple of problems with this approach. At the risk of providing the BBC with another opportunity to announce a split in the Yes movement, I must say that, while I can understand her desire to follow accepted protocols for the sake of demonstrating a willingness to behave in a responsible way, it is a very high risk strategy.

First, and most obviously, it relies on the media challenging those who intend to refuse a Section 30 Order. Given the anti-Indy bias in the media, that seems unlikely.

Secondly, we should know by now that playing by Westminster’s rules is unlikely to get us anywhere. Witness the scorn and derision aimed at SNP MPs in the house of Commons, and how the Unionist Parties will block any motion put forward by the SNP no matter how sensible or how in line with their own policies it might be. Witness, too, the long list of broken promises from 2014, the overturning of the Sewell Convention and the legal action to nullify the Scottish Government’s EU Continuation Bill.

Those things were all done before the Boris Johnson administration took control. With the UK Government now in the hands of extremists, can we be comfortable that they will follow the same principles of good faith that Nicola Sturgeon seems determined to play by? Again, that seems unlikely.

Politely asking for a section 30 Order will almost certainly result in the request being turned down. If the only strategy is to keep asking in order to be able to point to the UK Government being unreasonable, then we face the very real risk of the Scottish Government finding itself outmanoeuvred and powerless. The UK Government is not building a massive new office complex in Edinburgh and hiring thousands of staff for nothing. They have already made it perfectly plain that they intend to strip powers away from Holyrood. How long before they take the next step and dissolve the Scottish Parliament? Some people may view this as unthinkable, but how many unthinkable things have come to pass already? The methods being employed by Johnson’s Government are akin to those of right wing extremists everywhere. They will want absolute power, and the devolved Parliaments are an obvious target for them.

Realistically, supporting the SNP is the only way we are going to see Scotland become a normal country through a democratic process, but some people in the Yes movement are questioning whether the SNP has a plan at all. I hope they do, and I really hope it’s a better one than relying on Westminster to play fair.